NFL Week 11 Predictions

Another 7-7 week last week, my third of the season. I picked far too many upsets. But I have to keep going with my gut. At least I am guaranteed there will be no more 7-7 weeks. With no more byes, there will be sixteen games each week.

Onto this week.

Cowboys @ Ravens
Baltimore is improving and looking like a playoff team again, whereas Dallas is falling apart. The defense, which should be so good, is terrible. Look for Jamal Lewis to exploit that fully, and for the Raven defense to peck away at the inexperienced Cowboy receivers. Prediction: Ravens.

Rams @ Bills
The Bills have finally started producing some points on offense with the emergence of McGahee at running back. That's really the only weapon they have. (It works for Baltimore.) The Rams will have a hard time dealing with that attack, which will also free Bledsoe to stay off the ground and maybe complete a pass or two. The Bill defense will shutdown the Rams. Prediction: Bills.

Cardinals @ Panthers
Did you hear the news? A Panther starter was lost for the season due to injury. Shocking! Seriously, the Panthers finally put up some offense last week against the 49ers. (It's a statement of how bad San Fran is that the Panthers, starting a team with so many second and third stringers, put up 37 points and a win against them.) The Cardinals are hot, though, having won 3 of their last 4 and 4 out of 6. They sit one game out of first place in the division. Even when they've lost, they've been competitive. Dennis Green has done a fine job in his first season there. Prediction: Cardinals.

Colts @ Bears
The Bears are on a hot streak, winning 3 in a row behind Krenzel. Actually, Krenzel has been along for the ride. The Bears beat Tennessee last week behind Krenzel's impressive 19.3 QB rating. The Bears are winning by playing good defense against lesser offenses. They haven't faced anything like the onslaught that will be coming from Peyton Manning. Prediction: Colts.

Steelers @ Bengals
Both starting quarterbacks were picked early in the last two drafts, but Roethlisberger has already made a name for himself while Palmer is still struggling with the typical first-year starter blues. As I've said for a couple of weeks, Palmer seems to have turned a corner and is settling down. Of his 12 interceptions on the season, only 4 have come in the last four weeks, and in that stretch the Bengals have gone 3-1. Most of those games have been against lesser talent. The Steelers are one of the best teams in the league, with a punishing running game and a stifling defense. The poor Bengal defense will struggle just to slow Jerome Bettis down. Prediction: Steelers.

Jets @ Browns
Many commentators are saying that the Jets are in trouble with Quincy Carter under center instead of Pennington. These observers seem to overlook the fact that with better clock management late in the game, the Jets had an excellent chance of beating the playoff contending Ravens. They should have won that game, but blew the clock at the end. The fault there falls squarely on the shoulders of the coach. Jordan throwing an interception in the endzone on a trick play didn't help either. The point is, the fault does not lie with Carter. This is still a good team, and the Browns are not. Prediction: Jets.

Titans @ Jaguars
The Titans have few weapons this season, and those are sitting on the sidelines nursing injuries. Prediction: Jaguars.

Lions @ Vikings
Detroit, after a strong start, has dropped three straight, including two on the road. The Vikings, despite losing three straight and raising the specter of another meltdown like last year's, have been very competitive in both of the last two games. As my rebel son (he's a Viking fan in Packer-ville) likes to emphasize, both games came down to last second field goals and so could have gone either way. Whatever their slide says about their place in the elite of the NFC, the Vikings do not give the impression of a team heading for a meltdown. Getting a game against a down-trending team like Detroit is just what they need to get back on form. Prediction: Vikings.

Broncos @ Saints
The Saints will field the worst defense in the NFL against one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league. They are not even a speedbump to opposing teams. New Orleans can move the ball on offense, but that will be of little help, the occasional Saint drive to breakup the steady stream of Bronco touchdowns. Prediction: Broncos.

49ers @ Bucs
The Bucs are clicking on offense. The 39ers (you can't put these guys in the same franchise as Joe Montana's or Steve Young's 49ers) are perhaps the worst team in the league. Prediction: Bucs.

Chargers @ Raiders
The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, led by one of the most explosive offenses. As I've pointed several times before, the Chargers under Schottenheimer have a history of starting strong and collapsing in the second half of the season. The second half starts now, so collapse watch can begin. Luckily for them, they face the Raiders who apparently want another high draft pick next year. Oakland is doing its best impression of the 2003 Chargers. If any collapse is on the horizon, and I don't think there is, it won't begin this week. Prediction: Chargers.

Dolphins @ Seahawks
The inconsistent Seahawks face off against a demoralized, bad team in Miami. (They were bad before, now they are demoralized and bad. Actually, they are demoralized, bad, and led by an interim head coach making his NFL debut. Wait, they are demoralized, bad, led by an interim head coach making his NFL debut, and with a quarterback making his 13th appearance in the NFL over three years.) Prediction: Seahawks.

Falcons @ Giants
As I've written elsewhere, the Giants are basically conceding the season by starting Manning instead of Warner at quarterback. That bad decision is compounded by sending him out in his first start against one of the best defensive fronts in the league. The Falcon defense has 27 sacks this season. The porous Giant offensive line, one of the main reasons they have struggled in recent weeks after a good start, should allow the Falcons to easily push that total over 30. The injury depleted Giant defensive line will have a hard time slowing Warrick Dunn and Michael Vick. Prediction: Falcons.

Redskins @ Eagles
Joe Gibbs has finally replaced Brunell with Ramsey. Unfortunately, Ramsey will make his first start of the season against a sack-happy Eagle defense. Prediction: Eagles.

Packers @ Texans
Both these teams have been my nemesis in making picks this year. I am almost always wrong. This ought to be a shootout, with two top tier offenses squaring off against bottom tier defenses. Shootouts have not been friendly to Green Bay this season, but this time they have the better offense and the better imitation of a defense. Prediction: Packers.

Patriots @ Chiefs
If the Chiefs were at full strength on offense, this would be an interesting game. I have been saying for a while that the Patriots' weakness is run defense, and the Chief running game can overwhelm an opponent. Just ask Atlanta. But Holmes is out and will be replaced by a less experienced running back. The potent Chief offense cannot be overlooked, especially with a beat up New England secondary. But the Pats can grind it out on the ground with Corey Dillon and keep the ball out of Trent Green's hands. The Patriots can exploit any opening an opponent gives them, and the Chiefs are one of the most penalized teams in the league. Prediction: Patriots.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 79-65